October 14th, 2015
On Monday, October 12, Princeton Professor Angus Deaton was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for his “analysis of consumption, poverty and welfare.” As the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences stated in its announcement, “to design economic policy that promotes welfare and reduces poverty, we must first understand individual consumption choices. More than anyone else, Angus Deaton has enhanced this understanding.”
September 28th, 2015
U.S. stocks seem to be afraid of their own shadow. From its recent peak in May 2015 to today, the S&P 500 has dropped about 8 percent. The declines in the Dow are greater. Is this the beginning of the end of the recent bull run or is it a hiccup on the road to new highs? We believe that the recent rout is an interruption in what remains meaningful upside opportunity – in short, a buying opportunity. Still, the ferocity of the decline is a signal that the market is not of a mind to take on much risk going forward.
November 23rd, 2015
The global analytical community shows a striking lack of curiosity about the sustained period of subpar economic performance, reacting with shoulder-shrug references to the “new normal.” Global growth has remained stuck at around 3.3 percent since 2011 when it just breached 4 percent. The IMF forecast of 3.6 percent growth in 2016 would represent an improvement but would also extend what has been the most prolonged period of subpar global growth since the early 1990s.