Newsletter: A monthly brief of new insights on important economic, financial and policy issues.
Financial Stability & Dynamics
This report extends our 2015 Zone of Risk framework to assess how financial cycles evolve in the zone and link the timing of financial cycles to the timing of U.S. recessions. To make this link, this report introduces Recession Indexes which use economic activity and financial indicators to identify the timing of recessions.
This briefing presents our views on recent market volatility in oil, stocks and exchange rates and how these markets will evolve in 2016.
This report introduces new analysis of financial risk in the economic cycle, highlighted by the imbalance between net wealth and national income that emerges late in the cycle. As the economic cycle ages, the underlying demand for tangible wealth and supporting financial assets exceeds the ability of the economy to generate new financial claims to meet this demand. This creates volatility and instability in financial markets, making a financial event that triggers an economic shock and recession more likely.
This briefing illustrates how the ECB’s new quantitative easing measures will affect the exchange rate outlook for the U.S., Europe and Japan.
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