Newsletter: A monthly brief of new insights on important economic, financial and policy issues.
Financial Stability & Dynamics
This report will deepen and extend the Zone of Risk framework originally presented in our December 2015 report, Zone of Risk.
This briefing presents our views on recent market volatility in oil, stocks and exchange rates and how these markets will evolve in 2016.
This report introduces new analysis of financial risk in the economic cycle, highlighted by the imbalance between net wealth and national income that emerges late in the cycle. As the economic cycle ages, the underlying demand for tangible wealth and supporting financial assets exceeds the ability of the economy to generate new financial claims to meet this demand. This creates volatility and instability in financial markets, making a financial event that triggers an economic shock and recession more likely.
This briefing illustrates how the ECB’s new quantitative easing measures will affect the exchange rate outlook for the U.S., Europe and Japan.
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