Newsletter: A monthly brief of new insights on important economic, financial and policy issues.
Institutions & Governance
The media frenzy surrounding tax reform strongly suggests that the border adjustment tax (BAT) and the deficit implications of dropping the BAT will doom tax reform for this year. The issue boils down to two questions: Can tax reform be done, and will it get done? Our answer to both questions is yes.
This report examines Trump administration policies and actions and the House Republican border tax adjustment (BAT) in the context of the United States’ traditional open market advocacy. While the adoption of the proposed BAT would take the effective U.S. tariff back to levels not seen since World War II and is, therefore, highly unlikely, we conclude that administration actions to date are within established norms of international trade policy. We further note that large multilateral trade negotiations like TPP are victims of their own past success in virtually eliminating many tariffs and have pushed into much more contentious issues like labor and environmental standards, intellectual property, and legal arrangements, which will make them more politically difficult to approve in the future.
For excerpts from this report, see The Prevailing State of Trade
and Border Adjustment Tax Offsets Tax Reform Benefits
In our previous Client Briefing, we emphasized the sheer magnitude and complexity of the 2017 U.S. legislative agenda. In the current briefing, we want to address the deficit challenge associated with this legislative agenda and the implications for tax reform.
In our view, U.S. stock markets are banking on much more legislative change than will actually occur this year – a year in which many companies are as likely to be losers as winners.
On March 17, 2016, The GailFosler Group (GFG) held a luncheon meeting in Paris, France for a private, high level group of select CEOs and business leaders.
A private group of select global CEOs and policy leaders joined in New York City to discuss global market opportunities, rising income inequality and global financial stability.
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