Newsletter: A monthly brief of new insights on important economic, financial and policy issues.
Global economic outlook reports and other in-depth data-driven analyses on longer-term global trends on key issues such as demographics, labor markets and automation, and China.
This report examines Trump administration policies and actions and the House Republican border tax adjustment (BAT) in the context of the United States’ traditional open market advocacy. While the adoption of the proposed BAT would take the effective U.S. tariff back to levels not seen since World War II and is, therefore, highly unlikely, we conclude that administration actions to date are within established norms of international trade policy. We further note that large multilateral trade negotiations like TPP are victims of their own past success in virtually eliminating many tariffs and have pushed into much more contentious issues like labor and environmental standards, intellectual property, and legal arrangements, which will make them more politically difficult to approve in the future.
For excerpts from this report, see The Prevailing State of Trade
and Border Adjustment Tax Offsets Tax Reform Benefits
This report assesses the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies on the U.S. economy and global inflation, building on our June outlook for higher commodity prices and emerging market growth. We discuss President-elect Trump’s policies, their likely timeline and effects, and how they compare to President Reagan’s, highlighting the very different economic conditions that Trump inherits compared to Reagan.
This report explores how demand for fossil fuels will be shaped by a growing global emphasis on greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and includes considerations on how progress toward climate change goals can create opportunities for strategic partnerships among sectors on technology and innovation.
For an excerpt adapted from this report, see What Do Climate Efforts Mean for Fossil Fuels Demand?
This report revisits and advances the global growth scenarios we introduced in our November 2015 Global Outlook report, Charting a New Path.
This report ranks the top 30 emerging markets by prime working-age urban market opportunity and risk out to 2050.
This report introduces new analysis of the financial risk that emerges when net wealth and national income become imbalanced late in the economic cycle.
This report analyzes the impact of trade, credit, commodity prices and China on the global growth outlook through 2018.
This report highlights long-term structural supports for growth and considers risks that could upend the economic modernization process.
This report focuses on the impact of the global trade slowdown, improving credit growth, exchange rate fluctuations, volatile commodity prices and their impact on emerging market growth.
This report examines U.S. economic strength, European and Japanese weakness and related currency outlook, and rebalancing progress for China.
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