Newsletter: A monthly brief of new insights on important economic, financial and policy issues.
Global economic outlook reports and other in-depth data-driven analyses on longer-term global trends on key issues such as demographics, labor markets and automation, and China.
Though we remain very positive on the global cycle, this report further develops our view that the United States is set for a recession in 2018.
This report extends our 2015 Zone of Risk framework to assess how financial cycles evolve in the zone and link the timing of financial cycles to the timing of U.S. recessions. To make this link, this report introduces Recession Indexes which use economic activity and financial indicators to identify the timing of recessions.
This report builds on themes introduced in our previous Global Outlook reports, namely accelerating global growth led by emerging markets, a declining U.S. dollar, and rising commodity prices. In this report we also project a “reset” of the U.S. economy in 2018 marked by a sharp slowdown in growth.
This report assesses the progress of global trade policy and whether Trump administration policies or the House Republican border tax adjustment signal a shift toward protectionism by the U.S.
This report assesses the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies on the U.S. economy and global inflation, building on our June outlook for higher commodity prices and emerging market growth.
This report explores how demand for fossil fuels and renewables will be shaped by global commitments to climate objectives and the potential for investment across the energy sector.
This report revisits and advances the global growth scenarios we introduced in our November 2015 Global Outlook report, Charting a New Path.
This report ranks the top 30 emerging markets by prime working-age urban market opportunity and risk out to 2050.
Our global outlook reports examine the dynamics that shape the global economy and outline our expectations for regional and global economic growth over the next few years.
This report introduces new analysis of the financial risk that emerges when net wealth and national income become imbalanced late in the economic cycle.
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