Client Reports

Global Opportunities, U.S. Risks

August 11th, 2017

This report builds on themes introduced in our previous Global Outlook reports, namely accelerating global growth led by emerging markets, a declining U.S. dollar, and rising commodity prices.  In this report we also project a “reset” of the U.S. economy in 2018 marked by a sharp slowdown in growth.  These views are based on recent work on recession indicators and our Zone of Risk framework which points to a rising probability of recession in the first half of 2018.

For an excerpts from this report, see Oil Prices, the U.S. Dollar, and Emerging Markets and Stock Market Risks.



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