Global Reflation and the Trump Effect
December 16th, 2016
This report assesses the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies on the U.S. economy and global inflation, building on our June outlook for higher commodity prices and emerging market growth. We discuss President-elect Trump’s policies, their likely timeline and effects, and how they compare to President Reagan’s, highlighting the very different economic conditions that Trump inherits compared to Reagan. We retain our view of a likely recession in 2018 based on what we believe to be increasing strains on an already liquidity-stressed business sector – particularly given that we anticipate more Fed rate increases than the Fed has announced and the market now expects.
For excerpts adapted from this report, see Mr. Trump, Your Economy Is No Ronald Reagan Economy and The U.S. Dollar – Up and Then Down.
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